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| Above: Radar image of Hurricane Harvey at 1:30 pm CDT Thursday, taken from the lower fuselage radar on NOAA"s P-3 weather research aircraft. Image credit: tropicalatlantic.com |
Surging
beyond tropical storm strength on Thursday, Hurricane Harvey is
projected to become the first major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger)
to strike the United States in almost 12 years. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect from Port Mansfield to Sargent, Texas, including the Corpus
Christi area, with a Storm Surge Warning from Port Mansfield north to
High Island and a Hurricane Watch southward to the Mexico border and.
Harvey poses an unusually complex, multifaceted, prolonged, and
dangerous threat over the next several days to parts of South Texas,
including the central TX coastline as well as locations well inland.
Localized multi-day rainfall amounts could be as much as 35", according
to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The 4 pm CDT Thursday
outlook from the NHC brings Harvey onshore near Port O’Connor, TX, as a
Category 3 hurricane during the predawn hours on Saturday.
If
you live on the coast of Texas, please heed the advice of local
emergency management officials, and get out today if you live in an
evacuation zone. Current trends would keep the more dangerous
right-hand side of Harvey north of Corpus Christi, but residents there
should pay close attention to
official local statements
and evacuated if advised. The city remains in the NHC cone of
uncertainty, and hurricanes stray outside this cone about 30% of the
time.
The 4 pm CDT Thursday
Wind Speed Probability Forecast
from NHC called for the greatest chances of hurricane-force winds in
Port O’Connor and Rockport--about a 70% chance. Corpus Christi and
Matagorda had about a 50% chance, Galveston a 19% chance, and
Brownsville and Houston a 10% chance. Tropical storm-force winds may
arrive along parts of the lower coast as early as 8 am CDT Friday,
making evacuation difficult thereafter, according to the
latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast.
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| Figure 1. Visible-wavelength GOES-16 satellite image of Hurricane Harvey at 2027Z (3:27 CDT) Thursday, August 24, 2017. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch. GOES-16 data are preliminary and non-operational. |
At 4 pm CDT Thursday,
Harvey was centered about 300 miles south-southeast of Port O’Connor,
TX (between Galvston and Corpus Christi), moving north-northwest at
about 10 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 85 mph, or Category 1
strength. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight was a research mission
that had not gathered wind data at standard heights above the surface,
so the actual intensity could be somewhat higher. The researchers found
that Harvey had a large, partially open eye, about 27 miles wide, that
was just starting to become apparent on satellite images (see image at
top). Satellite loops late Thursday afternoon showed a band of
especially strong convection (showers and thunderstorms) wrapping around
the west side of Harvey’s eyewall, a sign that another burst of
strengthening may be about to begin. A dry slot separated the core of
Harvey from a large area of convection to the northeast; this asymmetry
could work against Harvey’s intensification for at least a few hours.
Intensity forecast for Harvey: Strengthening expected to continue
Now
that Harvey has a well-formed structure, there are no obvious
impediments to it intensifying right up until landfall. Harvey should be
a Category 2 hurricane by
Friday morning, and a Category 3 hurricane by
Friday
night, if not sooner. Harvey probably does not have enough time to
become a Category 4 storm. It is possible that an eyewall replacement
cycle will occur shortly before landfall, which would put
intensification on hold but spread out the hurricane's strong winds over
a wider area, increasing the storm surge.
The current favorable conditions for development will remain in place along Harvey’s path through
Friday night, according to the 18Z
Thursday run of the
SHIPS model.
Southerly wind shear will remain light to moderate, with its effect
minimized by Harvey’s northward motion, and the atmosphere will be
moist. Harvey will continue to traverse sea-surface temperatures near
30°C (86°F), about 2°F above average for this time of year. The warm
waters extend to considerable depth, with a total ocean heat content of
70 - 85 kilojoules per square centimeter. Beginning early
on Friday,
Harvey will get an extra boost in energy as it passes over a warm-core
eddy that broke off from the Loop Current. The oceanic heat content
within the eddy exceeds 80 kilojoules per square centimeter--enough to
support rapid intensification. When warm waters are especially deep, the
strong winds of a hurricane are less likely to churn up cooler water
that might blunt its growth, so intensification becomes more likely.
The 12Z
Thursday
runs of our top intensity models—the HWRF, LGEM, COAMPS-TC, HMON, and
DSHIPS—predicted that Harvey would be a Category 1, 3, or 4 storm at
landfall. The HMON model was the most aggressive, predicting Harvey
would max out at Category 4 strength with a 924 mb central pressure.
However, the HMON had Harvey with a 966 mb pressure at
2 pm EDT Thursday,
while the actual pressure was 979 mb, so the HMON forecast is likely
overdone. The HWRF model was the most conservative, predicting Harvey
would max out as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds and a 960 mb
pressure. However, the HWRF had Harvey with a 984 mb pressure at
2 pm EDT Thursday,
when the pressure was actually 979 mb, so this forecast is likely too
conservative. The LGEM, Decay SHIPS, and COAMPS-TC models all predicted
Harvey would be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, and so did NHC in
their
4 pm CDT Thursday
advisory. This appears to be the best intensity forecast, though we
cannot rule out Harvey making it to Category 4 strength, or coming
ashore as a Category 2 storm.
Based on these signals, residents of
the central Texas coast must prepare for a major hurricane landfall.
The central and lower Texas coast has experienced only one direct strike
from a major hurricane in the last 47 years (Bret, 1999).
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| Figure 2. Intensity forecasts made for Harvey at 8 am EDT Thursday, August 24, 2017. The official NHC intensity forecast from 2 pm EDT Thursday is included (red line). Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC. |
Track forecast for Harvey: A rare and worrisome scenario
The
long-range track outlook for Harvey is extremely unusual and very
concerning. Steering currents are expected to collapse near Harvey this
weekend, and the hurricane may spend several days moving very slowly
near or just inland from the Texas coast. The 12Z Thursday GFS stalls
Harvey inland within 100 miles of Corpus Christi from Saturday through
Wednesday. Although Harvey would gradually weaken in such a scenario, it
would continue to funnel huge amounts of moisture into the southeast
half of Texas. Enormous rainfall totals would be a virtual certainty.
The European model depicts a shorter stall, but even this solution keeps
the center of Harvey near the central Texas coast for around 48 hours.
Both the GFS and European models move Harvey slowly northeast along the
Texas coast and through the Houston area, with the Euro taking Harvey or
its remnants into Louisiana on Tuesday and the GFS on Thursday. Either
scenario would push torrential rains into eastern Texas and parts of
southern and western Louisiana.
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| Figure 3.
WU depiction of official National Hurricane Center track forecast for
Harvey issued at 4 pm CDT Thursday, August 24. The hurricane is
predicted to stall near the central Texas coast on Saturday, gradually
weakening to tropical depression strength by Tuesday. The long-range
outlook is dependent on very weak steering currents, and the location of
Harvey’s expected stall could change between now and this weekend. |
Given
the very weak steering currents, we can expect some variations in the
forecast track and time frame of Harvey’s motion, and its intensity will
be strongly affected by whether the center takes up residence just
offshore, just inland, or near the coast. The take-home message is not
to fixate on a particular position or timing, but to be aware that
Harvey is likely to spend a long time near the Texas coast and likely to
generate mammoth rainfall totals. Guidance from the GFS and European
models indicates that some isolated spots could receive more than 35”,
and most areas within 100 miles of the Texas coast can expect at least
5”-10”. Especially if Harvey takes a westward jog inland, the
flood-vulnerable Hill Country of Texas may be at risk of extreme
rainfall as well. It is still too soon to tell which areas will get the
very heaviest rains from Harvey. Given the potential breadth, intensity,
and duration of the rainfall, residents of the southeastern third of
Texas, including the Houston area, should be ready to respond as if
Harvey could produce some of the highest flood waters on record for
their location.
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| Figure 4.
The five-day precipitation forecast for Harvey issued by the NOAA/NWS
Weather Prediction Center on Thursday afternoon, valid for the period
from 7 pm CDT Thursday through 7 pm Tuesday, August 29, 2017. Localized
totals could be even higher than the exceptionally high 24.8-inch
maximum shown here. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC. |
Harvey
could be an unusually prolific tornado producer along the central and
upper Texas coast, given its expected very slow motion near the
coastline. This location would maximize the tornado-supportive wind
structure within Harvey’s rainbands, especially northeast of the center.
Slow-moving Hurricane Beulah, which made landfall in far South Texas as
a Category 3 storm in 1967, produced a total of 115 tornadoes—just
behind the U.S. record of 118 tornadoes from Hurricane Ivan (2004).
Widespread
power outages can be expected with Harvey, and these may grow in scope
through the weekend, as heavy rains fall onto saturated ground with
strong winds continuing in some areas.
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| Figure 5. Tracks of Hurricane Alicia (left) and Celia (right). |
Texas hurricane history
According to
NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division,
the last hurricane to hit Texas was Category 2 Hurricane Ike in 2008.
Ike was the most damaging hurricane in Texas history, with $34.8 billion
in damage (2017 dollars), according to
NOAA/NCEI. The deadliest hurricane in Texas history is also the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history—the
Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900,
which killed 8,000 – 12,000 people. The last time a hurricane hit South
Texas was in 2008--Category 1 Hurricane Dolly. The last major hurricane
to hit Texas was Category 3 Hurricane Bret of 1999, which made landfall
along Texas’s Padre Island, midway between Brownsville and Corpus
Christi. Due to Bret’s small size and the sparsely-populated region of
the coast it hit, damage was limited to $60 million, and just one life
was lost; Bret’s name did not get retired. Hurricane Rita of 2005 was
rated as a Category 2 landfall for Texas, but was a Category 3 landfall
for southwest Louisiana.
There are several historical cases of
August hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification to Category 3 status
just before landfall in Texas.
Hurricane Alicia
of 1983 took 36 hours to intensify from a tropical storm with 70 mph
winds to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. During that time,
the pressure dropped from 998 mb to 963 mb. Alicia killed 21 people and
caused $1.7 billion in damage (1983 dollars.)
Hurricane Celia of 1970
took twelve hours to intensify from a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph
winds to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds just before landfall.
Celia hit the coast very close to where Harvey is expected to, killing
27 and causing $930 million in damage (1970 dollars.)
We’ll be back with an update late Thursday night.
Jeff Masters co-wrote this post.
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