for Friday, 08 November 2013 [3:15 AM PhT]

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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 0!0
Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013

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Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) has turned into a 305 km/hr howler...and is considered as the most powerful tropical cyclone ever to develop since Super Typhoon Tip of October 1979...moving closer to Eastern Visayas...likely to make landfall over Eastern Leyte or Southern Samar after sunrise today.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 pm today, the eye of STY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over the South Philippine Sea...about 320 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or 425 km east of Metro Cebu...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 39 km/hr towards Leyte and Southern Samar Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 305 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers from the center. STY Haiyan is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Haiyan is expected to move fast in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will make landfall over the central-eastern shores of Leyte, about 45 km south of Tacloban City between 8-9 AM Friday and cross Northern Leyte passing over or very close to Ormoc City just around noontime Friday. This Super Typhoon will be passing over the northern tip of Cebu, very close to Bogo City around 2 PM then it will start traversing the North Central part of the Visayas through Friday evening...across Northern Panay (very close to Roxas City and Boracay) late Friday afternoon...and will be in the vicinity of Coron, Palawan by Friday midnight. On Saturday evening, Haiyan (Yolanda) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to weaken slightly within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system makes landfall over North Central Visayas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 215 km/hr by Saturday evening.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon...over Sulu Sea as it approaches Calamian Group...about 75 km WSW of Boracay [8PM NOV 08: 11.6N 121.3E @ 240kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...weakens further while over the South China and West Philippine Seas...about 595 km SE of Da Nang, Vietnam [8PM NOV 09: 13.9N 113.3E @ 215kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Making landfall along the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 2...about 70 km NE of Hue, Vietnam [8PM NOV 10: 17.0N 107.2E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

30-KM ROUND EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None yet...but approaching the shores of Southern Samar and Leyte. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Samar, Leyte, Masbate, and Caraga.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Northern Palawan, Mindoro, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas this morning. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).-->

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

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CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Nov 07, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 10.4º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 195 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 295 km SE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 320 km ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 355 km ESE of Ormoc City
Distance 5: 425 km E of Metro Cebu
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 305 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 370 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: WNW @ 39 kph
Towards: Leyte-Southern Samar Area
CPA [ETA] to Leyte: This Morning [between 8-10AM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on either 1-minute average (JTWC) or 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL & RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.

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